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Nation to moderate high-speed economic growth
www.chinanews.cn 2005-11-30 10:54:14
(Source: Xinhua)
Nov. 30 - The growth rate of China's economy is expected to lower to 6.7
percent next year, said Morgan Stanley economist Stephen Roach recently
at Beijing University.
"Although the estimation may be too conservative, the downward trend of
China's economic growth is certain to come," he said.
Many Chinese and overseas economists have reached consensus on the
upcoming slowdown of China's economic growth.
In the past few years, the rocketing export has become a robust driving
force of China's economy, but in the near future, due to increasing trade
disputes and international trade protectionism, the country will not be
able to maintain a high-speed export growth.
Besides, China's macro-control policies have successfully decelerated the
country's overheated investment growth, so economists believe the Chinese
economy will enter a new stage characterized by stable rather than
high-speed growth.
In 2003 and 2004, China's annual economic growth rate was 9.5 percent,
and in the first three quarters this year, the figure was9.4 percent.
The National Bureau of Statistics expected Chinese economy to grow at an
rate between 8.7 to 9.2 percent next year, and in the next five years,
the country's economy is expected to rise at an average rate of 8 percent.
Since China started its reform and opening-up policy more than 20 years
ago, its economy has "overheated" or "overcooled" several times.
After some years of rapid economic growth of more than 9 percent, China
is trying to restructure its economy by putting more emphasis on quality,
rather than quantity.
Economists agree that the Chinese economy now faces two major problems,
namely excessive dependence upon its exports and oversupply in some
industries due to excessive investment.
The restructure policy will cool down China's booming economy, but it is
unlikely for the economy to slump in the near future, because both
exports and investment will maintain moderate growth, and the government
will make more efforts to stimulate domestic consumption.
2006 may be a starting point for the country to overhaul its economy
through discouraging overheated investment and stimulating consumption,
said Wang Xiaoguang, a researcher with the State Development and Reform
Commission.
The seasonal adjustment of the Chinese economy is not equal to economic
recession in western countries, Wang said. The Chinese economy will
continue to rise next year, with a growth rate slowing down to a moderate
level, he said.
According to China's next five-year plan, the per capita gross domestic
product in 2010 is expected to double from that in 2000, which means
China has to maintain its annual economic growth above7.5 percent.
The Chinese government, having adopted the concept of sustainable
development, is now paying more attention to quality and efficiency in
economic development, and regards stable and balanced growth as ideal.
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